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AGI Institutions › National › Preferences
Agents that represent national interests / large groups
Theory of change
How does a nation read what its people want, fast and credibly enough to steer policy, when AI makes opinion easy to fake? Early prototypes exist: Moral Graph Elicitation and Habermolt use AI to surface what people care about and where they agree, far faster than in-person deliberation. A rough, speculative path from there:
  1. Start with a research trial on a divisive issue, to see if people accept the result as fair. An early Moral Graph Elicitation run with 500 representative Americans found that 89% judged the outcome fair, even when their own view wasn't picked as the wisest.
  2. Run a real but contained pilot with a smaller, forward-looking polity that has the appetite to try it (somewhere like Catalonia, Scotland, or Taiwan), or on a single issue like homelessness in a city. The hard part is making the output something policymakers can actually act on, not just another survey.
  3. One likely route is a political party that makes these tools part of how it works, especially in places where new parties can still break through. In Japan, Takahiro Anno ran for Governor of Tokyo in 2024 using AI to listen to voters at scale, then built a party, Team Mirai, around tools like Pol.is and Talk to the City. It won 11 seats in the Lower House in early 2026.
  4. If the results are strong, larger polities might follow as their own institutions are put under even more strain.
UrgencyPressing, but existing democratic checks still hold for now.How time-sensitive is this problem?
TractabilityThe tools exist; legitimacy to bind a government is the hard part.How hard is this design problem?
NeglectednessSignificant research energy here, e.g. DeepMind's Habermas Machine.How likely is this to be solved by market forces or existing research institutions by default?
MaturityPrototypes exist (MGE, Habermolt); none yet binds a real decision.How far along is this work already, from a bare idea to working prototypes and early pilots?

How humans solve this today

National preference aggregation is done through a stack of institutions, not a single mechanism. Voters are assumed to form views freely from an independent press and the wider information environment, and those views are then aggregated through several instruments with different tradeoffs:

  • Representative elections confer a multi-year mandate on a party or candidate to act across the whole bundle of issues a government will face. They let elected officials act quickly when needed, at the cost of compressing the public's actual preferences into a single up-or-down vote on a ticket.
  • Referenda pull a single high-salience question out of that bundle and settle it directly with the electorate (Brexit), trading representativeness for resolution.
  • Citizens' assemblies and deliberative polls form high-fidelity pictures of what the public would think if it had time and information, by convening a randomly selected minipublic to deliberate with expert testimony — accurate but slow and expensive, suited to a single contested question at a time.
  • Opinion polls, public-comment periods, and constituent mail give officials a continuous low-stakes read on shifting opinion in between.

Where AGI breaks it

  1. Agents can persuade at scale through one-on-one conversations, seeded online movements, manufactured polls and apparent majorities. Agents can hold tailored conversations with every voter at once, run synthetic movements that appear grassroots, and generate comment, mail, and online speech indistinguishable from human input. This leaves the system vulnerable to malicious actors, both foreign and domestic, who deploy agent fleets designed to steer voter opinion. Polls and public-comment periods stop functioning as readable signals because the cost of fabricating the signal collapses, and voter preferences themselves become a moving target.
  2. Elections, assemblies, referenda, and polls are slow and costly, so there will be pressures toward simulated polls and deliberation. It's unclear how they can be democratically legitimate. Once AI can simulate a representative citizens' assembly in hours at negligible cost, governments and advocates will be tempted to substitute synthetic deliberation for the human kind. Legitimacy rests on the assembly being composed of actual citizens forming and revising views in real conditions; a simulated assembly has no clear answer to "by what authority does this output bind us." The institutional question is not whether the simulation is accurate but what would have to be true for its results to count.
  3. If no preference-aggregation alternatives keep pace with an increasingly volatile world, the pull toward authoritarianism grows. Multi-year electoral cycles and months-long assemblies were tolerable when policy moved at a comparable pace. As agent-era policy speeds up — automated regulation, fast-moving security and economic decisions made partly by AI systems — the slow aggregators fall behind the decisions they're supposed to legitimate. Decisions migrate to whoever can act without waiting for them: executive action, emergency powers, agency rulemaking that never goes to vote.
  4. If we have AI lawmakers and executive branches, they are likely to be able to move quickly and unexpectedly in ways. For this reason, we may need a much clearer and continuous mandate from the people. AI lawmakers and executive systems can take actions at machine speed, across thousands of policy surfaces at once, in ways that are often illegible and unpredictable even to the officials nominally in charge. The mandate that needs to govern them therefore has to be both higher-resolution (specifying values and priorities at the granularity the systems actually act on, not the granularity of a party platform) and continuous, updateable as the public sees what the systems are doing, rather than ratified once every several years.

Problem Sets

Include from visions
1Aggregation fast enough to legitimate policy

Scenario. A national government's policy machinery, now run largely by AI systems, is acting fast across many domains at once. The public can see the resulting posture no longer tracks any party's platform, and the complaints are mounting. Policymakers want to get a real read on what people want, but the next election is three years away, a referendum is too binary, a citizens' assembly would take a year, and polls are too gameable to bind anyone. No one knows what institution would actually fit.

Challenge: Design a preference-aggregation institution that can produce legitimate, binding-or-near-binding output on policy-relevant timescales (weeks, not years), and that can keep pace with AI policy systems without devolving into rolling plebiscite.

Evaluation. A better proposal sits inside the existing constitutional order rather than replacing it, and is robust to the manipulation pressures that come with any fast cheap aggregator.

Design Choices
  1. Output type. Does the institution produce binding decisions, revocable mandates over named AI policy systems, advisory signals the executive must respond to on the record, or something else?
  2. Cadence. Rolling continuous output, fixed monthly or quarterly cycles, or threshold-triggered (the institution convenes when system behavior or public sentiment crosses defined lines)?
  3. Participation. Open to all eligible voters, randomly selected rotating panels, or layered (open polling feeding a smaller deliberative body that issues the formal output)?
  4. Manipulation resistance. Identity-verified participation, structured rate limits and provenance requirements on inputs, sampling designs that make agent-fleet capture expensive, or some combination?
  5. Constitutional fit. Does the institution operate by statute, by constitutional amendment, or as a self-binding norm executives publicly commit to? What happens when its output conflicts with the legislature?
2Standing for AI-mediated deliberation

Scenario. A regional government faces a contested decision on water rights. A traditional citizens' assembly would cost millions and delay the decision by a year, so a vendor offers three faster alternatives. The first uses AI as a facilitator and summarizer of a compressed human deliberation. The second lets each citizen send a personal AI agent, interviewed at length by its principal, to participate on their behalf in a multi-agent deliberation. The third replaces the citizens entirely with calibrated language-model proxies. The minister wants to use one; opponents call all three laundering. The legislature has to decide which, if any, can carry democratic standing.

Challenge: Design a regime that decides when, if ever, AI-mediated deliberation — at each of these levels of mediation — can carry democratic standing, and what evidence and procedure must be in place for its outputs to count.

Evaluation. A better proposal distinguishes accuracy (the procedure predicts what real citizens would conclude) from authorization (real citizens have empowered this output to bind them), and is specific about what each requires at each tier of mediation.

Design Choices
  1. Tiers. Are the three levels (facilitator, delegate, substitute) the right cut, or does the regime use a different decomposition?
  2. Authorization vs. accuracy. At which tiers, if any, does predictive accuracy plus disclosure suffice, and where is explicit citizen authorization required?
  3. Domain scoping. Are there decision classes (rights, constitutional questions, irreversible policy) where the higher tiers are categorically inadmissible no matter the accuracy?
  4. Auditability. What has to be inspectable — the facilitator model, the delegate agents' interviews with their principals, the synthetic citizens' priors — and by whom?
  5. Reversion and ratification. What triggers a fallback to fully human deliberation, who pulls the trigger, and is a separate human ratification step required before any AI-mediated output binds?
3Deep elicitation that surfaces values beneath surface preferences

Scenario. Polling on a contested AI-regulation bill swings double digits week to week as agent-driven campaigns reach different demographics with different framings, and no one in government takes the numbers seriously anymore. Underneath the surface, on values like safety, autonomy, economic security, and fairness across regions, the public's commitments appear more stable and more shared than the polling suggests. A research consortium proposes a national elicitation: in-depth interviews with a representative sample, designed to surface the values people actually hold and the conditions under which they would endorse one as wiser than another. Six months, tens of millions of dollars.

Challenge: Design an elicitation institution that produces a high-resolution picture of the public's values on a contested issue — beneath surface preferences, surfacing shared commitments and bridges across apparently opposed positions — and that stays robust to agent-scale manipulation even as it remains slow and expensive.

Evaluation. A better proposal is clear about when the cost is worth paying, what authority the output carries, and how the elicitation itself is defended from the manipulation pressures that broke polling.

Design Choices
  1. What's elicited. Surface preferences, underlying values, the contexts in which one value applies over another, or all three?
  2. Reconciliation. How are conflicting values reconciled — by aggregation, by participants judging which is wiser for a context, by a deliberative second pass, or not at all (the output is the disagreement)?
  3. Manipulation resistance. Verified human participation, sampling immune to self-selection, public audit of transcripts, or structural insulation of the body running the elicitation?
  4. Authority. Binding on the legislature, advisory with a required response, admissible in court, or purely informational?
  5. When to invoke. Run for any major contested issue, only when polling has visibly broken down, or only when a legislative body formally requests one?
4MGE Pilot Design for a Policy Domain

Scenario. A country is about to hold a national referendum on overhauling its long-term-care policy — who pays, who provides, what happens when someone can no longer stay at home. Polling will capture yes and no. What it won't capture is what Yelena, a home-health aide, has learned over fifteen years: that the families she works with care about different things than either side of the campaign is talking about. They want to be sure their parent is still known by name; they want a single aide who isn't always changing; they want to know that their own turn, when it comes, won't reduce them to a bed-flip statistic. A pilot moral-graph process could capture what the referendum cannot. The minister's office has a month to decide whether to run it.

Challenge: Design a pilot moral-graph-elicitation process that supplements a country's legislative or referendum process for a single policy domain you choose (education, drug scheduling, immigration quotas, land use — whatever best tests the method), specifying selection, elicitation, aggregation, and its interface with existing authority, plus the protocol the minister's office would actually run.

Evaluation. A strong pilot survives the three strongest objections a democratic theorist would raise about substituting an elicited value-structure for the vote, with sketched responses.

Design Choices
  1. Participant selection. Random sample, stratified, or self-selected with correction?
  2. Elicitation procedure. What are you eliciting — pairwise comparisons of outcomes, articulated values and their weights — and how do you handle the fact that participants' values may change through the process?
  3. Aggregation. How is the moral graph turned into a policy recommendation, and what role does the graph structure (e.g., coreness) play?
  4. Interface with existing authority. When the recommendation goes to the legislature, what is its legal status — advisory, presumptive, or binding absent override?
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